Honest Analysis of State of Dissident Movement

I received an e-mail from Net For Cuba with a release issued by Cesar Alarcon and Huber Matos on the state of the dissident movement in Cuba. It is not exactly optimistic, but not unfounded either. Here's the release which can also be accessed here, with my own thoughts below.

A call of alert.

In the last few months, the perception of the end of the Castro regime as a possible reality has rekindled the hope of many Cubans. This is an event of great importance because one of the objectives of the dictatorship has always been to keep its people immersed in defeatism. A positive vision of the future such as an attainable ideal is almost an indispensable requirement to materialize a change in Cuba.

This optimism is the beginning of change in the distribution of forces which the regime itself has taken note. The official political meeting in answer to the protests of this past July 13th and the speech of this past July 26th has demonstrated their nervousness. The Cuban democratic opposition must take advantage of these circumstances to prepare as rapidly as possible, the conditions that will allow the development of a responsible strategy. Nevertheless, we think that at this moment, two serious errors of appreciation are popular.

First: To affirm that in Cuba the conditions are present for its people to rebel is an error. Between the generalized existence of displeasure in the population and its disposition to take to the streets there is a great distance. It is true that in Cuba there exists a deep level of frustration and that people criticize openly, as never before. But it is equally certain that instead of a fighting spirit, in the population prevails a generalized and intense desire to flee the country.

Second: Even more it is dangerous to think or to affirm that the dissidence in Cuba is organized at a national level. The dissidence has, neither sufficient level of organization, nor coordination in the country. Most of the opposition is disarticulated in small groups that live under the permanent hostility of the regime. These do not have recognition nor international endorsement. Many do not have resources even to mobilize themselves. Once the State Security discovers them they lose their jobs and are abandoned completely. Even more, there are false opponents who dedicate themselves to seed the division in the ranks of the dissidence and in some cases they cause the ostracism and the persecution of legitimate dissidents.

Truthfully the assistance that reaches a sector of the dissidence is fundamental, as is the aid received by the families of imprisoned dissidents. But these efforts must be increased and consolidated. The Cubans on the outside, which are the true rear of this fight, must organize more effectively.

Lamentably we are observing as in a capable advertising and repressive maneuver where the regime demonstrates to the people, to the exile, and to the world that they control the streets. Dissident leaders are cornered and harassed in their own homes and the streets by crowds of the dictatorship in order to demonstrate that the dissidence has neither organization nor resources to mobilize the population.

The dictatorship needed a victory desperately, a reaffirmation that its capacity to control is intact. It has obtained it momentarily but we do not have to be discouraged by this maneuver. The distribution of forces continues to move against them. We must denounce the harassment that the dissident leaders undergo and we must avoid, due to improvisation and overconfidence, that the Cuban people suffer other tactical failures that slow down and make more expensive the final outcome in favor of freedom.

César L. Alarcón. Huber Matos Araluce.
Baltimore, Maryland. San José, Costa Rica.

Monday, August 15, 2005.

I'd like to address the first point: yes there is a gap between displeasure and actually taking to the streets. There is a lack of a fighting spirit, instead there is resignation, and those who can leave do so. But I think the main reason for this is fear. Living under an oppressive regime for decades will do that to a population. That fear is slowly melting away, but it takes time. The worse the living conditions get in Cuba, which they undoubtedly are, the more we'll see the fear go away.

The second point regarding the lack of organization of the dissident movement is right on the money, unfortunately. Which brings me to the repressive mobs which have been active the past few weeks in harassing and preventing dissidents from attending meetings. The release states that it is giving a sense of victory on the part of the government. Perhaps to governmesympathizersers it does. But to everyone else it is a clear sign of insecurity on the part of the regime. If the dissidents truly posed no threat, they wouldn't bother sending the mobs and risking international scorn. The regime has always been good at swaying international opinion in their favor through deceit and falappearancesces. Now the regime is risking all this by sending the mobs, which they know have received a good amount of international press.

There is still a long way to go, but the first steps have been taken. Let's continue to support those brave dissident souls inside Cuba all the way to the end.

¡Ya No Mas!