Nostradamus or The Inevitable? (UPDATED)

I just saw this report in an e-mail:

It was a broiling August afternoon in New Orleans, Louisiana, the Big Easy, the City That Care Forgot. Those who ventured outside moved as if they were swimming in tupelo honey. Those inside paid silent homage to the man who invented air-conditioning as they watched TV "storm teams" warn of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing surprising there: Hurricanes in August are as much a part of life in this town as hangovers on Ash Wednesday.

But the next day the storm gathered steam and drew a bead on the city. As the whirling maelstrom approached the coast, more than a million people evacuated to higher ground. Some 200,000 remained, however—the car-less, the homeless, the aged and infirm, and those die-hard New Orleanians who look for any excuse to throw a party.

The storm hit Breton Sound with the fury of a nuclear warhead, pushing a deadly storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain. The water crept to the top of the massive berm that holds back the lake and then spilled over. Nearly 80 percent of New Orleans lies below sea level—more than eight feet below in places—so the water poured in. A liquid brown wall washed over the brick ranch homes of Gentilly, over the clapboard houses of the Ninth Ward, over the white-columned porches of the Garden District, until it raced through the bars and strip joints on Bourbon Street like the pale rider of the Apocalypse. As it reached 25 feet (eight meters) over parts of the city, people climbed onto roofs to escape it.

Thousands drowned in the murky brew that was soon contaminated by sewage and industrial waste. Thousands more who survived the flood later perished from dehydration and disease as they waited to be rescued. It took two months to pump the city dry, and by then the Big Easy was buried under a blanket of putrid sediment, a million people were homeless, and 50,000 were dead. It was the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States.

Looks like the latest report off the AP wire, right? How about if I told you that the above was written in National Geographic magazine for the October 2004 edition? It's amazing the similarities, hell, it's virtually identical to what's actually occurring as we speak.

Even the author of the piece would likely acknowledge that he's no Nostradamus. It has been known for a long time that New Orleans is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. as far as hurricanes is concerned.

Here's the next paragraph in the story:
When did this calamity happen? It hasn't—yet. But the doomsday scenario is not far-fetched. The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the most dire threats to the nation, up there with a large earthquake in California or a terrorist attack on New York City. Even the Red Cross no longer opens hurricane shelters in the city, claiming the risk to its workers is too great.

Amazing. So then, why are so many people surprised? Why did so many people that had the ability to evacuate stay behind? And, worse of all, why are so many pointing fingers in blame?

Granted, blame can be spread far and wide in this case. From local officials who couldn't think of a way to evacuate the poor and handicapped, all the way up to Federal officials who didn't react quickly.

However, I can speak at least a little for the Feds. In my work, I deal a little bit with FEMA, and I can say with 100% certainty that they take every hurricane threat seriously, whether it's a Category 1 hitting South Florida or a Cat 5 hitting Louisiana. They are in constant contact with both local officials and the National Hurricane Center in order to pass along the latest information, days before the storm hits.

I really don't think anyone could've been prepared to deal with an event of this magnitude. The part of the article about a New Orleans hurricane as big of a disaster as an NYC terrorist attack or a California earthquake may have seemed like hyperbole 2 weeks ago, but is so true today. FEMA set up camps ahead of the storm to quickly distribute aid after the storm's passage, those got wiped out. There is only 1 road leading in and out of New Orleans, and once you get there, the city is under water.

Right now is not the time to point fingers and criticize. Now is the time to help out by giving to the many organizations that are accepting donations.

UPDATED: Sirimba has some impressive figures from a FEMA press release.