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Lessons From Wilma
As some of you know, I am in the weather business. More specifically, I am supposed to give preparedness information and advice to the general population on weather-related hazards.
As a result, the last few months have been quite interesting for me, to say the least. Specifically, the last 2 hurricanes to directly impact South Florida have served as fodder for plenty of discussion and job-related material.
In a post right after Katrina, I made some comments about the common misperceptions people had about that storm. With Wilma, there were also plenty of misperceptions, but in different areas.
- The most common misperception, especially from the media, was "a Category One Did This" (quote shamelessly stolen from the Herald's infamous headline a few days after the storm). The answer is: mostly yes! One of the perks of my job is that I get to ride helicopters and survey storm damage, and the Wilma survey revealed little significant damage to the vast majority of homes and structures. A few areas did see some heavier damage, with more substantial damage to roofs. The structures that consistently suffered the most damage were mobile homes. No surprise there, although the Herald in its infinite wisdom and effort to make and sell controversy, ran a picture of a mobile home with a tree sitting on its roof as the accompaniment to the headline quoted at the top of the paragraph. A Category 1 storm with sustained winds up to 90 mph will damage mobile homes and cause widespread power loss anywhere. The areas that did see more significant damage was due to stronger sustained winds possibly up to 100 mph, a Category 2.
- Another misperception: tornadoes caused the damage to the downtown high-rises and other areas with more extensive damage. The survey revealed that most high-rises fared quite well, with the damaged ones being the exception. It has been established that winds 10, 20, and 30 stories above ground can be at least a category higher than on the ground. Sustained winds on high-rises were probably an easy 100-110 mph. There were no reports of tornado sightings during the height of Wilma. The fact that Wilma passed after sunrise would have made it fairly easy for someone to see a tornado. None were seen as far as we know.
- People don't understand categories well. That's at least partially the fault of us meteorologists for not explaining the Saffir-Simpson Scale properly. I think people expect a Category 1 storm to produce minimal impacts. Minimal damage, for the most part, yes. Minimal impacts, definitely NOT. A hurricane is still a hurricane, whether it's a 75 or 175 mph storm. Hurricane warnings are issued regardless of category precisely because of the damage that even a low-end hurricane can produce. Category 1 storms typically knock out power for days, uproot trees, blow a few shingles off of roofs, but won't knock down or tear off the roof of a well-built structure. Wilma was that type of storm.
- Speaking of well-built structures, the survey revealed that newer homes fared better than older homes. This is a testament to the stronger buildings codes imposed after Hurricane Andrew 13 years ago. As far as the high-rises that had windows blown out, it may be reasonable to assume that they weren't built very well.
- People should have been better prepared. This goes into a few touchy areas, first of which is the unrealistic expectations that FEMA will come riding into town 24 hours after a hurricane passes through a metropolitan area of 5 million people and provide the basic necessities.
Bottom line - when the TV people tell everyone to have at least 3 days' worth of water, food, and other provisions, they mean it. We have all year from December to June to get ready for hurricane season, yet there were many people who were lined up for ice and water the day after Wilma. Being in Hurricane Alley and facing the prospects of more storms in the future, there is no excuse for not being ready, plain and simple. Wilma was a well-behaved storm. The track was very close to forecast, so people were and shouldn't have been caught off-guard. We also have to realize that we'll be without power for days. One can criticize FPL for many things, but I don't think the response to Wilma was one of them. Putting cables underground would help, but those cables have to come up somewhere. In a wet storm, flooding can create bigger problems with underground lines, especially in areas near sea level such as South Florida.
Power loss is inevitable even in the most ideal of situations.
As a result, the last few months have been quite interesting for me, to say the least. Specifically, the last 2 hurricanes to directly impact South Florida have served as fodder for plenty of discussion and job-related material.
In a post right after Katrina, I made some comments about the common misperceptions people had about that storm. With Wilma, there were also plenty of misperceptions, but in different areas.
- The most common misperception, especially from the media, was "a Category One Did This" (quote shamelessly stolen from the Herald's infamous headline a few days after the storm). The answer is: mostly yes! One of the perks of my job is that I get to ride helicopters and survey storm damage, and the Wilma survey revealed little significant damage to the vast majority of homes and structures. A few areas did see some heavier damage, with more substantial damage to roofs. The structures that consistently suffered the most damage were mobile homes. No surprise there, although the Herald in its infinite wisdom and effort to make and sell controversy, ran a picture of a mobile home with a tree sitting on its roof as the accompaniment to the headline quoted at the top of the paragraph. A Category 1 storm with sustained winds up to 90 mph will damage mobile homes and cause widespread power loss anywhere. The areas that did see more significant damage was due to stronger sustained winds possibly up to 100 mph, a Category 2.
- Another misperception: tornadoes caused the damage to the downtown high-rises and other areas with more extensive damage. The survey revealed that most high-rises fared quite well, with the damaged ones being the exception. It has been established that winds 10, 20, and 30 stories above ground can be at least a category higher than on the ground. Sustained winds on high-rises were probably an easy 100-110 mph. There were no reports of tornado sightings during the height of Wilma. The fact that Wilma passed after sunrise would have made it fairly easy for someone to see a tornado. None were seen as far as we know.
- People don't understand categories well. That's at least partially the fault of us meteorologists for not explaining the Saffir-Simpson Scale properly. I think people expect a Category 1 storm to produce minimal impacts. Minimal damage, for the most part, yes. Minimal impacts, definitely NOT. A hurricane is still a hurricane, whether it's a 75 or 175 mph storm. Hurricane warnings are issued regardless of category precisely because of the damage that even a low-end hurricane can produce. Category 1 storms typically knock out power for days, uproot trees, blow a few shingles off of roofs, but won't knock down or tear off the roof of a well-built structure. Wilma was that type of storm.
- Speaking of well-built structures, the survey revealed that newer homes fared better than older homes. This is a testament to the stronger buildings codes imposed after Hurricane Andrew 13 years ago. As far as the high-rises that had windows blown out, it may be reasonable to assume that they weren't built very well.
- People should have been better prepared. This goes into a few touchy areas, first of which is the unrealistic expectations that FEMA will come riding into town 24 hours after a hurricane passes through a metropolitan area of 5 million people and provide the basic necessities.
Bottom line - when the TV people tell everyone to have at least 3 days' worth of water, food, and other provisions, they mean it. We have all year from December to June to get ready for hurricane season, yet there were many people who were lined up for ice and water the day after Wilma. Being in Hurricane Alley and facing the prospects of more storms in the future, there is no excuse for not being ready, plain and simple. Wilma was a well-behaved storm. The track was very close to forecast, so people were and shouldn't have been caught off-guard. We also have to realize that we'll be without power for days. One can criticize FPL for many things, but I don't think the response to Wilma was one of them. Putting cables underground would help, but those cables have to come up somewhere. In a wet storm, flooding can create bigger problems with underground lines, especially in areas near sea level such as South Florida.
Power loss is inevitable even in the most ideal of situations.
posted by Robert at 8:40 PM
3 Comments:
A very good lesson, Professor Molleda. I've taken notes, and will review them regularly, particularly when I make my move TO South Florida sometime in the next three years --because I hear those coral reefs calling my name!
Ironically, I had considered the possibility of acquiring a mobile home... but now, I won't.
Thank you for a most enlightening presentation.
Julio
Thank you for these valuable reminders, facts, and related words of wisdom. Part of the storm and post-storm problem here in beautiful S Florida is that over the past few decades we have seen a proliferation of urban types who suffer from deer-in-the-headlights syndrome and have no clue - and never will have - about basic storm/post-storm survival skills.
Thus, the MSM will continue to have a field day with sensationalist and mostly inaccurate coverage about hurricanes in this part of the world...
Darwin lives.
Mi sister's mother-in-law was stuck in her gated Boca community cuz a huge tree was blown down over the entrance drive... Like that Dr. Suess story, Solla Sollew; the paradisical city where no one can enter nor leave cuz they can't open the gate... :)
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