[freedomtowernight_edited.jpg] 26th Parallel: Florida Propels McCain...and Other Thoughts on Election

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Florida Propels McCain...and Other Thoughts on Election

Now that the dust has settled a bit after yesterday's Florida election, here are my rather brief thoughts:

- McCain won Florida because Romney couldn't grab enough of Giuliani's votes. This was no more evident than in South Florida, especially in Miami-Dade County, where Romney finished third BEHIND Rudy. This was my thought late last night upon analyzing the results by county. Were Cuban-Americans a major factor in this? No doubt whatsoever. The final numbers show McCain winning by 95,000 votes statewide. In Miami-Dade County alone, McCain beat Romney by 51,000 votes. That's more than half of the winning margin in one county alone. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Cuban Republicans made up a big portion of that margin. Even the Miami Herald came to that conclusion. The Sun-Sentinel apparently doesn't recognize the large county to the south of Miramar, broad-brushing the analysis by stating that McCain had the support of Hispanics statewide.

So then, why did Cuban-Americans support McCain? I sincerely believe that he made himself much more visible to the community from an early stage, even before the election process began. His stance on Cuba is rock-solid, and of course that's going to carry big weight here. Anyone remember the CAMBIO bracelet McCain wore at the Univision debate in Coral Gables a couple of months ago? He's also made appearances on popular Spanish-language shows such as A Mano Limpia about 2 years ago. These things cannot be overlooked. Quite simply, C-As trust McCain. Even Rudy was able to make some inroads in the community, as he garnered 16,000 more votes than Romney. Why Romney didn't hit the Cuban community harder, I don't know. Maybe Al Cardenas can explain.

UPDATE: I would be remiss not to mention this article from Weekly Standard which generally supports my analysis above. Thanks to rsnlk at Babalu for the H/T.

Last point on the presidential primary: Why did we make such a big deal about ex-pat New Yorkers supporting Rudy? The vast majority of South Florida New Yorkers are Democrats! The results reflected that, especially in Broward County (the 6th borough), where Rudy finished THIRD.

- Property Tax Amendment easily passed. Another disappointment. I guess people want some kind of relief, no matter whom or what it negatively affects. You can bet local and state governments are going to overreact to this by cutting some essential services, instead of cutting fat. Take it to the bank.

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12 Comments:

Blogger Rick said...

Actually, Robert, the Herald article primarily looks at Florida's Hispanic voting trend and only touches on the Cuban-American vote. As I recall, you have clearly delineated the two, am I right?

I don't think it takes a genius either to figure out why Hispanics and CA's trended toward McCain: Romney is Tancredo-lite with his immigration policy. In fact, if you recall, Tancredo endorsed Romney. The large majority of CA's and Hispanics, I think, favor the moderate immigration policies of McCain. To say that a Cambio bracelet is a determinant when just about every Republican did something, from sipping cafecito to wearing guayaberas to saying "ola", is a little simplistic, don't you think?

Lastly, if you are going to insist that governments are inept at spending money, which you and other staunch Republicans always do, you have got to accept that they are inept at cutting money and effectively reducing services. So, yes, essential services are going to suffer. But then, every one knew that and they still voted for the Amendment so they can get another 2 or 3 weeks of gas money or another Wii. We, as a society, are so predictable.

And so brainless.

.

10:38 AM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger Gabriel J. Lopez-Bernal said...

"The Sun-Sentinel apparently doesn't recognize the large county to the south of Miramar, broad-brushing the analysis by stating that McCain had the support of Hispanics statewide."

Nope. There is Miami and there is "South Florida" the lump of uninspiring suburban crap that the Sun-Sentinel focuses on. They only head South of the border when there is some dreadful story to report, usually involving murder, corruption, or any other terrible story to remind "South Floridians" why they shouldn't associate with Miami...

10:43 AM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger Robert said...

Rick,

I don't think the immigration issue is a big deal for Cubans. Therefore, other issues jumped to the forefront. I would say national defense is at the top of that list, and that's the area where conservatives are most comfortable with McCain.

Also, Wearing the CAMBIO bracelet, in itself, is not a determining factor. But that, combined with his prior appearances in South Florida (I mentioned his appearance on A Mano Limpia as an example) and his reputation as a staunch opponent of the castro regime, makes him very viable to the average Cuban-American Republican.

I haven't had the chance to see the vote breakdown by precinct, but I would love to see how it broke down.

2:10 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger nonee moose said...

Rick, the Mitt was much wors than Tancredo-lite, IMO. He didn't have the decency to not screw up and let loose a castroist war-cry in a crowded sandwich shop. Simply pandering with the traditional linen garb and a sip of bittersweet ink may well have kept him in the game. Instead, he swung for the fences and became brazenly indifferent rather than just plain indifferent. He certainly stood out.

I think A1 was tantamount to getting the milk for free, politically. 64% of us didn't think to make them buy the cow. After all, they love us. They told us so.

3:04 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger George L. Moneo said...

Speaking of brainless, the white whale of the blogosphere, riddled with harpoons, breaches at last. And what spouts out of his blow-hole? The same touchy-feely crap talk we got to know so well in his halcyon days. /sigh/ You almost make me nostalgic...

[P.S., Rick, I was going to leave you an incredibly snide, sarcastic, insensitive and hurtful comment, but changed my mind at the last minute in deference to Robert and the respect I have for him...]

4:33 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger Rick said...

Robert: Totally agree with you on the importance of immigration with CA's. But, again, I believe the Herald article was addressing Hispanics as a whole and I think that issue plays a much bigger part in their decision making.

I, too, would be interested to see the county voting pattern.

George: #1, I've been around. You just haven't noticed me. #2, I have no idea what the rest of that mess you wrote meant.

#3, don't you have a video to post or a few vulgarities to hand up to the Neanderthals over at blablalu?

And a guy who writes a weepy post about how thankful he is to a local TV anchor for finding his cell phone has no business using the phrase "touchy-feely."

And that goes as well for the word "whale."

.

6:15 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger George L. Moneo said...

LOL! There are constants in the universe and you're one of them Ricky boy. Leave it to you to take a literary reference and turn into an insult to call me fat! I'm very hurt. I'm almost weepy.

6:50 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger Henry Gomez said...

Robert, Wrong.

Local governments won't cut services. They'll raise millage rates.

10:40 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger nonee moose said...

Henry's right. That's the gaping hole in this tax "relief". Tallahassee relieved themselves in our ear, and convinced us it was raining.

11:11 PM, January 30, 2008  
Blogger Robert said...

Henry,

There will be cuts to essential services and the agencies that play a role in emergencies (such as Emergency Management). I know and work with people in the field and who are in the know on this. Perhaps not every county or municipality will cut, but most will, including at the state level.

I agree that we'll see some millage rates increase to compensate.

7:09 AM, January 31, 2008  
Blogger Rick said...

And is if on cue...

.

7:49 AM, January 31, 2008  
Blogger Jonathan said...

Robert, you may be interested in this interactive map that shows FL Republican primary results by county.

8:26 PM, January 31, 2008  

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